Epic Predicted Epic Games Store could reach 35-50% of PC gaming market by 2024 and be profitable

The profitability of the Epic Games Store was again called into question when the antitrust process between Epic Games and Apple began. Following the opening statements from the companies, the hearings focused primarily on Epic Games, its arguments, and business models, including the Epic Games Store. So it became known that the store will be profitable only in 2024 – and then it will capture from 35 to 50% of the PC market.

CEO Tim Sweeney testified and confirmed that the store’s profitability is ” hundreds of millions of dollars .” The CEO attributed this to the initial cost and expected the Epic Games Store to generate profits “within three or four years. “

The paper presented to the court models the future earnings of the Epic Games Store based on two scenarios: an aggressive race model (continuing to actively invest in exclusive games to attract new users and increase market share) and a  roll-out model (meeting the minimum guarantees promised for exclusive games up to 2021).

A more aggressive model is predicted to cause the Epic Games Store to suffer a gross loss of $ 181 million in 2019, $ 273 million in 2020. Still, then every year, the situation will get better until the store brings profits of $ 45 million. It was also assumed that the Epic Games Store by then could capture 35 to 50% of the PC games market, depending on Valve’s response. This would be a huge hit given the estimated 75 percent Steam share currently.

As part of the roll-out model, Epic Games expected the same loss in 2020, but then more significant improvements: a profit of $ 18 million in 2023, and a year later – $ 65 million. In this case, the Epic Games Store market share will peak by about 20% and fall to 8% by 2024, as the company estimated.

The report is dated October 2019, but Sweeney’s comments in court suggest the store is still adhering to these or similar plans.