Box Office Predictions In its second week, Barbenheimer is expected to outperform Haunted Mansion
After a record-setting opening weekend that extended to impressive weekdays, Barbie is expected to maintain its dominance at the box office, with predictions of a low to mid 50% drop-off, placing its second-week earnings between $70-$80 million. However, some believe Barbie’s momentum and devoted fandom may result in a smaller decline. Last week, the movie exceeded expectations by $47 million, opening with a record-breaking $162 million instead of the initially estimated $155 million. This week’s estimate for Barbie is around $90 million, assuming a drop in the 40% range. The loss of premium screens, like Dolby, to accommodate new releases may impact the numbers, but theaters are likely eager to get Barbie back on those screens as soon as possible.
Oppenheimer is projected to secure second place, benefiting from its retention of Imax screens, which have been consistently sold out nationwide. Impressively, Barbie’s audience score has dipped slightly during the week, currently standing at 86% from last week’s 90% (though review bombing might be a factor). On the other hand, Oppenheimer’s audience score only dropped 1%, remaining strong at 92%. Following its successful opening weekend of just over $82 million, Oppenheimer is expected to have a relatively small drop, landing around $50 million for its second week. Both movies, Barbenheimer and Oppenheimer, have found success due to their epic events and distinct qualities, appealing to a diverse audience.
In third place, the big new release of the week, Disney’s Haunted Mansion, is projected to perform modestly. Though tracking estimates the film around $35 million, poor reviews and the competition from recent blockbuster releases may hinder its box office performance, with predictions of around $25 million. Haunted Mansion currently holds a 45% score on Rotten Tomatoes, and despite having Owen Wilson and Danny DeVito in the cast, it seems to lack the laughs and excitement to draw a large audience. The movie might find more success when it releases on home video, particularly during Halloween time.
Sound of Freedom is likely to maintain its position in the top five, as its dedicated fans continue to purchase tickets. The movie’s passionate following, including those buying tickets for others, has led to gradual decreases each week. With both Barbie and Sound of Freedom in theaters simultaneously, there is something for everyone at the box office.
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, despite its excellence and positive reviews from both critics and audiences (96% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 94% audience score), experienced a softer-than-expected opening and a significant drop in its second week. The crowded marketplace might have affected its numbers, but as a big-screen experience, it’s hoped that more people will realize its worth in the coming weeks, helping it reach a respectable finish. Predictions for this weekend hover around $15 million.
The other new release of the week, the A24 horror film Talk To Me, has seen effective marketing and garnered solid reviews (currently at 95% on Rotten Tomatoes). However, its audience score is slightly lower at 73%. Despite the creepy marketing, it may not have reached enough viewers to significantly impact the box office, likely landing near the bottom of the top ten with earnings of around $3-$4 million.
Let us know your plans for this weekend at the theaters! The box office numbers will be updated on Saturday to give a glimpse of the weekend’s performance.
