A Blockbuster Weekend Showdown
On June 27, 2025, movie theaters ignited with two vastly different contenders: F1, a high-octane Formula 1 drama starring Brad Pitt, and M3GAN 2.0, the anticipated sequel to the 2022 horror hit about a killer AI doll. Early estimates project F1 racing toward a staggering $115 million global opening, while M3GAN 2.0 limps to a $20 million U.S. debut. The F1 vs. M3GAN 2.0 box office battle reveals the power of star-driven spectacle versus the challenges of sustaining a viral franchise. This article unpacks the films’ performances, the reasons behind their contrasting fortunes, and what these results mean for Apple and Universal’s cinematic ambitions.
F1: A High-Speed Victory Lap
Blazing Previews Set Records
F1, directed by Joseph Kosinski and backed by Apple Original Films, roared out of the gate with $10 million in U.S. previews, including $7.2 million on Thursday alone—the biggest preview haul in Apple’s film history. Projections suggest a $50–60 million domestic opening, with some estimates as low as $35–40 million, and a global debut topping $115 million, fueled by strong international markets.
Why F1 Is Dominating
Several elements are driving F1’s success:
- Star Power: Brad Pitt’s lead role as a retired Formula 1 driver, paired with Kosinski’s Top Gun: Maverick pedigree and producer Jerry Bruckheimer, creates a winning formula.
- Formula 1 Authenticity: Featuring real drivers like Esteban Ocon and Carlos Sainz, the film appeals to motorsport fans while drawing general audiences with its emotional story.
- Premium Experience: Shot for IMAX, F1 delivers stunning visuals, with fans raving about its “heart-pounding” races and immersive sound.
- Marketing Push: Apple’s promotion, including a splashy WWDC 2025 feature, has built massive buzz, appealing to men over 25, women over 25, and younger audiences alike.
Despite a $200–300 million budget, Apple’s streaming-first model via Apple TV+ reduces box office pressure, and the film’s strong start positions it as a potential awards contender. Fans have called it “a thrilling ride” and “the best racing movie ever,” praising its blend of action and heart.
M3GAN 2.0: A Sequel Stalling Out
Weak Previews and Projections
Universal and Blumhouse’s M3GAN 2.0 opened with just $1.5 million in Thursday previews, a sharp drop from the original M3GAN’s $2.75 million. Released in over 3,000 U.S. theaters and 79 international markets, the sequel is projected to earn $20 million domestically, compared to the first film’s $30.4 million debut. This underwhelming start dims hopes for replicating the original’s viral success.
What’s Holding It Back?
The sequel’s struggles stem from multiple factors:
- Crowded Market: Competing with F1, holdovers like 28 Years Later, and the upcoming Jurassic World Rebirth, M3GAN 2.0 is squeezed in a packed summer season.
- Tonal Shift: Directed by Gerard Johnstone, the sequel pivots to action and camp over horror, earning a 58% Rotten Tomatoes score and 54/100 on Metacritic. Critics call it a “fun thrill ride” but weaker than the original’s sharp horror-comedy mix.
- Soft Presales: Ticket presales are 25% of Evil Dead Rise’s and half of Smile 2’s, reflecting lower audience enthusiasm despite strong awareness among women under 25.
- Higher Stakes: With a $15–25 million budget (up from the original’s $12 million), the sequel needs stronger returns to match the first film’s $180 million global gross.
The story, centered on M3GAN’s rebuild to face a military-grade AI named Amelia, has been praised for cleverness but criticized for lacking the original’s viral spark. Fans have called it “a bold but messy sequel,” with some feeling the dancing doll phenomenon was a one-time hit.
The Stakes: Studio Strategies in Focus
Apple’s Big Bet Pays Off
F1 marks a turning point for Apple Original Films, which has struggled with theatrical releases like Killers of the Flower Moon. Its $115 million global projection and record previews signal Apple’s growing clout in cinemas, even with a massive $200–300 million budget. The company’s streaming focus means box office losses are less critical, but F1’s success could pave the way for more theatrical ventures and Oscar consideration.
Universal’s Horror Hiccup
M3GAN 2.0’s lackluster debut raises questions about Universal and Blumhouse’s decision to release in a competitive summer window, unlike the original’s January 2022 slot. The first M3GAN turned a $12 million budget into $79 million in profit, but the sequel’s $20 million opening and mixed reviews cast doubt on a third film unless already planned. Its low budget ensures a small profit, but it falls short of expectations for a franchise with viral roots.
The 2025 Box Office Landscape
The F1 vs. M3GAN 2.0 box office clash unfolds in a strong 2025 market, with U.S. ticket sales projected to reach $9 billion, up $300 million from 2024 but below pre-COVID peaks. Family-friendly films have driven Disney to a $1.1 billion year-to-date lead, while adult-oriented titles like F1 face stiffer competition. The crowded summer slate, with 28 Years Later and Jurassic World Rebirth on the horizon, highlights the challenge for M3GAN 2.0 to break through.
How Audiences Are Responding
F1: A Crowd-Pleaser
F1 has won over audiences with its high-energy races and emotional depth, drawing comparisons to Top Gun: Maverick. Social media is abuzz with praise for its “jaw-dropping” IMAX visuals and Pitt’s “magnetic” performance, positioning it as a must-see for racing fans and casual viewers alike.
M3GAN 2.0: A Divided Fanbase
M3GAN 2.0 has split audiences. Some enjoy its campy action vibe, with critics noting its “quippy AI” keeps things lively, but others lament the loss of the original’s horror edge. Social media calls it “fun but forgettable,” with fans saying it lacks the TikTok-fueled charm of the first film’s dancing doll.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
How much will F1 earn on its opening weekend?
Estimates project $50–60 million domestically and over $115 million globally, with $10 million already earned in previews.
Why is M3GAN 2.0 underperforming?
A competitive summer market, a shift to action over horror, weak presales, and mixed reviews have led to a projected $20 million U.S. opening.
Is F1 a success for Apple?
Yes, its record $10 million previews and $115 million global projection mark Apple’s biggest theatrical debut, boosting its cinema ambitions.
Will there be a M3GAN 3?
The sequel’s $15–25 million budget ensures a small profit, but its weak $20 million opening and mixed reviews make a third film uncertain unless already greenlit.
Speed Outpaces Scares
The F1 vs. M3GAN 2.0 box office battle showcases the power of spectacle versus the pitfalls of sequel fatigue. F1, with Brad Pitt’s star power and Apple’s massive marketing, is cruising toward a $115 million global debut, proving the tech giant can compete in theaters. Meanwhile, M3GAN 2.0’s $20 million U.S. opening and lukewarm reception highlight the challenges of recapturing a viral hit’s magic in a crowded summer. Though its low budget keeps it afloat, Universal faces tough questions about the franchise’s future. As 2025’s box office heats up, F1’s victory lap signals a new era for Apple, while M3GAN 2.0 reminds us that even killer dolls can’t always dance to the top.
