The global PC market experienced a notable resurgence in the first quarter of 2025, with shipments of desktops, notebooks, and workstations rising by 9.4% year-over-year, according to recent data from Canalys. The total number of units shipped between January and March hit 62.7 million, largely fueled by increased notebook sales, which made up 49.4 million units. However, beneath the surface of this growth lies a complex web of preemptive strategies, shifting supply chains, and economic caution.
Surge Driven by Tariff Fears: Temporary or Sustainable?
Preemptive Shipments Inflate Q1 Figures
Much of the market’s apparent expansion stems from OEMs fast-tracking shipments to the United States in anticipation of a new wave of tariffs under the reinstated Trump administration policies. Major vendors such as Lenovo and HP aggressively scaled their U.S. shipments to avoid the added costs associated with post-April 9 tariffs.
- Lenovo increased U.S. shipments by nearly 20%
- HP ramped up shipments by approximately 13%
These efforts to build up inventory before the tariff deadline created a temporary sales buffer, which, while inflating Q1 numbers, is unlikely to translate into long-term recovery without sustained demand.
Windows 10 End-of-Support: An Underestimated Driver
SMBs Show Low Awareness and Readiness
Another important factor on the horizon is the October 2025 end-of-support deadline for Windows 10. Theoretically, this should spark a significant PC upgrade cycle, particularly among small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). However, Canalys’ March 2025 survey revealed troubling statistics:
- 14% of SMB-focused partners said clients were unaware of the upcoming deadline
- 21% said their clients had no upgrade plans
This lack of awareness, coupled with looming tariffs and higher hardware prices, may push some businesses into making rushed procurement decisions later in the year—potentially overwhelming supply chains and creating short-term bottlenecks.
Vendor Breakdown: Who’s Gaining Market Share?
Apple Outpaces Peers, Dell Shows Modest Recovery
A closer look at individual manufacturer performance in Q1 2025 highlights shifting dynamics:
- Lenovo retained its lead, shipping 15.2 million units globally
- HP followed with 12.8 million units
- Dell showed slight improvement, growing 3% YoY after quarters of stagnation
- Apple emerged as the biggest gainer, with 22% YoY growth, shipping 6.5 million units, securing a 10.4% global market share
Apple’s boost is credited to strong MacBook demand and aggressive pricing strategies in both North America and Asia-Pacific.
Global Supply Chains in Transition
OEMs Shift Production Outside China Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Amid ongoing trade tensions, many major PC makers continue to relocate manufacturing operations away from China, a trend catalyzed during the earlier phase of Trump-era tariffs. Countries like Vietnam, India, and Thailand have become new manufacturing hubs for U.S.-bound products.
HP’s CEO Enrique Lores recently announced that by the end of 2025, 90% of HP’s devices shipped to the U.S. will be produced outside China. While this strategic pivot reduces dependency on Chinese manufacturing, it does not fully eliminate the risk, as some of these countries also face tariff uncertainties.
Outlook for the Remaining Quarters of 2025
Inventory Glut and Weak Demand May Hinder Growth
While Q1 showed a strong uptick, analysts caution that overstocked inventories, muted consumer demand, and uncertain business upgrades could dampen momentum in upcoming quarters. Unless the Windows 10 EOL catalyzes widespread refresh cycles, growth may taper off.
Retailers and distributors may need to manage excess stock, potentially through discounts and promotional campaigns during back-to-school and holiday seasons. The final quarter of 2025 may see a second wave of shipments if SMBs start responding to the Windows upgrade urgency.
Frequently Asked Questions:
Why did the global PC market grow in Q1 2025?
The growth was largely due to OEMs front-loading shipments to the U.S. ahead of new tariffs, not necessarily because of increased end-user demand.
Which companies gained the most market share in Q1 2025?
Apple led in growth with a 22% YoY increase, followed by solid performances from Lenovo and HP.
How will the Windows 10 end-of-support affect the PC market?
It’s expected to drive upgrades, particularly in the SMB sector, although current awareness and readiness remain low.
Are PC manufacturers moving production out of China?
Yes, companies like HP and Lenovo are shifting production to Vietnam, India, and Thailand to mitigate tariff risks.
Will Q2 and Q3 continue the same growth trend?
Unlikely, as the Q1 surge was partly artificial. Future quarters may face slower growth due to inventory normalization and soft demand.
